I Participated in the Largest IPO in Human History
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Iran and the United States are closer to a peace deal than ever before. Pakistan's PM, mediating, confirmed the two sides have agreed on the final text. Brent fell 2.6% on the day to $86, and breaking below $90 signals that the Hormuz crisis is on pause. Unless oil reclaims $110, the geopolitical premium will be hard to reignite.
The University of Michigan's preliminary June consumer sentiment survey improved across the board. The sentiment index jumped from 44.8 to 48.9, well above the 46 expected and beyond the upper bound of the forecast range. One-year inflation expectations fell from 4.8% to 4.6%, and five-year inflation expectations dropped sharply from 3.9% to 3.4%. A month of equity rally and rapidly retreating inflation expectations have reinforced each other and, for now, defused the "stagflation" narrative.
In the adjustment effective June 22, Nasdaq-100 adds five names (ALAB, CRWV, NBIS, RKLB, and TER) while removing CHTR, CTSH, INSM, VRSK, and GS. GS had retail following but its results kept disappointing, and it was ultimately culled. Of the five newcomers, RKLB is a space concept; the other four all tie to semiconductors and AI infrastructure. Nasdaq's committee is accelerating the inclusion of the market's hottest themes to keep its earnings-growth edge.
Behind this is the long-term logic of index upside. The S&P and Nasdaq committees regularly remove companies whose growth has slowed or whose results are weak, and add fast-growing or stable compounders. The underlying EPS of the constituents is continuously optimized. Owning an index ETF means passively riding this selection mechanism, which keeps the long-term Nasdaq trend pointing higher.
ALAB: market price $367; 2026 forward PE 125x, 2027 94x; EPS growth +58% in 2026, +33% in 2027, 5-year CAGR 41%. Near-term support clusters at $334 to $355 and $304 to $325. Deeper down, $226 to $241 is the stronger support band.
CRWV: market price $100; still loss-making in 2026 and 2027; revenue growth −105% in 2026 (note: as reported), +82% in 2027, 5-year CAGR 56%. Currently pinned between strong support at $99.2 to $107 and strong resistance at $112 to $124. Only a break above $131 to $143 opens the right side, while a loss of $74.5 turns the trend bearish.
NBIS: market price $232; EPS growth −3% in 2026, +82% in 2027; 5-year consensus not yet available. $209 to $232 is medium support, $156 to $167 below is stronger support. Overhead $259 to $267 is not heavy resistance, and direction depends entirely on speculative momentum.
RKLB: market price $102; loss-making in 2026 and 2027; revenue growth +55% in 2026, +75% in 2027, 5-year CAGR 30%. Support $95.8 to $100, strong support $64.3 to $74.3; resistance $124 to $133, light overhead once broken. As a small-cap space name, its volatility is clearly influenced by SpaceX sentiment spillover.
TER: market price $403; 2026 forward PE 56x, 2027 43x; EPS growth +79% in 2026, +31% in 2027, 5-year CAGR 34%, the most fundamentally stable of the five. Support $338 to $386; no real overhead resistance on the way to all-time highs. A break below $293 confirms a bearish signal; stronger support sits at $214 to $233.
IPO priced at $135, raised $75 billion, and market cap reached $1.77 trillion, but only 556 million shares were floated, just 4.252% of total shares. This ultra-low float is expected to last at least two months. It opened at $150, traded as high as $176.52 intraday, and closed at $160.95, a first-day gain of 19.22% on turnover of $84.6 billion and a churn rate of 93.76%. Huge capital rotated in and out repeatedly, an extremely speculative signature.
An ultra-low float plus the imminent listing of options could trigger structural shifts. Once weekly options arrive, possibly as soon as Tuesday (June 16), concentrated call buying could force dealers to buy underlying to delta-hedge, producing a gamma squeeze. This is the same mechanism behind explosive moves in growth names before. In addition, inclusion in the Nasdaq is expected around July 6; passive inflows should further compress the actually available float.
The lockup release schedule will gradually break the low-float regime in the second half. After the Q2 report (around August) up to 20% of locked shares may release, then 7% each at days 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135; after the Q3 report (around November) an additional 28%; full unlock at day 180 (around mid-December). In other words, the share price for the first two months is priced entirely on sentiment and liquidity, decoupled from fundamental valuation. Space-concept stocks were already drained sharply on Day One. If SpaceX keeps siphoning speculative liquidity, related shadow stocks face continued outflow pressure.
A souvenir of participating in the largest IPO in human history.
JPMorgan's latest data shows global hedge fund long/short net leverage has dropped sharply to the low end of the trailing-12-month range, near the 5-year average. North American long exposure has been cut aggressively, fully reversing the strong buying seen during the May drawdown.
CTA trigger levels call for equal caution. SPX closing below 7312 is a small buy signal, but a loss of 7022 triggers large-scale selling. With broad-market volume thinning and fund flows disrupted by speculative hotspots, downside pressure is building out of sight. The safety margin for pullbacks and the entry points for excess-return buys need to be recalibrated against the latest EPS revisions and sector growth rates.
Disclaimer: This article is personal market observation and trading review only, not investment advice. Markets carry risk; trade with caution.